Category Archives: Austin Neighborhoods

Austin Neighborhoods, Blog, Circle C Ranch, Market Statistics

Circle C Housing Market Update for May 2020

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Circle C Housing Market Update for May 2020

  May 2019 May 2020 % Change
Homes Sold 32 21 Down 36%
Average Price $532,918 $590,845 Up 11%
Average Size 2,866 sf 3,120 sf Up 09%
Average $/SF $188/sf $194/sf Up 03%

 

The new normal (in the midst of Covid-19)

In my last post (date April 2020), Austin Real Estate Market update amid the Corona Virus April 2020, I suggested that we just did not know what was to come except for the very short term.  Anything past 2-3 months I categorized as “it depends”.  So, where are we know that its June some 3 ½ months later.  Well, Corona Virus is not really contained, the lockdown is letting up, most people are wearing masks (thank you!), and oddly… housing in Austin is still very strong but only because our economy is good and inventory is incredibly low.  From the table above, when comparing May Year over Year in Circle C Ranch, # sold homes is down 36% and prices are up.

The current market

I think the most amazing thing to me, is that sellers have really tightened down… for a few valid reasons.  First-hand, I have had some sellers take a seat and not list this spring as planned because they were unsure of the market.  I suspect sellers are also sitting tight despite the stimulus checks because they are not 100% sure they will have a job when the dust settles.  That might lead to an avalanche of home sellers in the fall – that remains to be seen.  Buyers on the other hand are chomping at the bit to find a suitable home. As an example, click here and note the following on the Change YoY % line at the bottom of the table.  Do you see what I see?  Active listings (18) are down 70% year over year from this time last year. Wow!  Similarly, in Meridian, active listings (3) are also down 70% year over year from the middle of June last year. Pending sales are down 20% in Circle C and down 25% in Meridian year over year.

It will likely be a truncated year in terms of the number of homes that go on the market and sell.  That tightening of the supply is having an impact on pricing.  I have personally seen many homes go “Multiple Offer” or into a closed auction bidding scenario in price bands from 200k to 800k, the bulk of the Austin market.

What about the summer events?

Finally, I also need to update you (our clients) on our summer plans as well.  As you may recall, we have been sponsors of the Grey Rock Golf Club (formerly Circle C Golf Club) Stars and Stripes celebration since it’s inception.  Unfortunately, the event is cancelled for 2020 due to Covid-19.  While disappointed, I understand the decision.  Let us stay apart and stay safe folks.  We will get back to outside and indoor events soon enough.  Safety first!

For More Information

For more information about the Circle C housing market and your particular neighborhood click here to view the updated Market Stats report on MoveToCircleC.com or AustinRealEstatePartners.com.  There you’ll see a google map with specific values for each neighborhood and if you scroll down a little two tabs with more information – one for the prior six months and one for the annual growth rate.

Still have questions about the market or what your home value could be today?  Call me directly at (512) 288-8088 and I’ll do my best to provide an answer and there is no obligation.

Austin Neighborhoods, Blog, Buyers, Circle C Ranch, Investors, Landlords, Renters, Sellers

Austin Real Estate Market amid the Corona Virus April 2020

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Greetings all… a quick post to our friends, clients and website visitors.

Melinda and I hope you are all well, staying safe, and taking care of yourselves and family. For those of you in essential businesses and especially the Medical fields, thank you so much for what you are doing for all of us! We are forever grateful for your sacrifices and frankly, bravery.

Over the past few weeks, several of you have reached out to ask me my thoughts on the housing market…. as sellers or buyers, renters or investors. I can briefly summarize my thoughts and expectations – however, I have to answer the way my attorney friends answer – that’s to preface any projections with the words “it depends”.

“It depends”?
What that means is simple.
The answer is dependent upon how long the CV-19 virus handcuffs local, state, regional, national and global economies.
Real estate is ‘local’ for the most part but it’s driven by confidence. Confidence is driven by jobs and income. If jobs / income go down in a (you can enter a time frame here – as it depends) recession, confidence will be lost and home sales will likely drop in several price channels (price bands).

“The best scenario”
Let’s say we have a short pause in the economy…. 2-3 months, CV-19 is controlled, a vaccine is approved and rolled out, and the majority of the population gets back to work 100% by August. Confidence would replace uncertainty. That would be awesome. If this becomes a prolonged ‘pause’, obviously the opposite would be more likely.

“Our economy”
As you all probably can guess, Austin is in much better shape than other cities employment wise, and for the high-tech individuals, they may be able to work online from home. Obviously, not all workers can just go online. The service industries appear to be impacted the most right now (retail, restaurants, hotels (@ < 5% occupancy downtown) for example.
Housing wise, we have a lack of resale inventory and builders are not going gangbusters right now. Low inventory plus continuity in employment (even if from home), could contribute to prices holding their own for a period of time. (caveat – it depends).

Those are my thoughts – however, as we have not done anything like this before, I’m taking a somewhat educated guess. After all, I did get a minor in Economics in college 😉 lol.  For an expert’s opinion and projections…. I give you Mark Sprague, State Director of Information Capital with Independence Title. His latest blog post link appears below.

https://independencetitle.com/market-musings-greater-austin-area/

My thanks to Mary Tran with Independence for providing the link today.

For sellers or landlords in the near term, we are recommending virtual tours, virtual open houses, even if the property is vacant. If the property is occupied, we are suggesting block times for physical visits – for example, “….showings this Saturday from 2-4pm, 10 minute gaps between groups by appointment only – social distancing rules apply”. Property surfaces should be cleaned prior to and immediately following showing windows. Some sellers are having their properties cleaned professionally every day. Properties should also have hand sanitizer and booties available at the door. Of course, if anyone is not feeling 100%, no showings or visitors should be allowed. Unfortunately, it all depends.

Feel free to email me back with thoughts or comments, suggestions or criticism ( I can take it) … or just to let us know you are okay. Because right now, that is most important to us. We are doing okay, keeping a smile on our face and doing our best to not gain an extra 15 lbs.

#BeSafe, #BeStrong, #StayHome

Blog, Circle C Ranch, Market Statistics, Sellers

Circle C Housing Market Update August, 2019

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Circle C Housing Market Update August, 2019

Greetings friends and neighbors. In family-oriented neighborhoods like Circle C there is a noticeable slow down in buyer activity as many people are fitting in the last vacation of the summer and preparing for the school year. The more things change, the more they stay the same.  I observed 3 open houses on Friday night last week which is a little unusual, as most agents and buyers are active on the weekend.  This past weekend was “tax-free” weekend which again typically means the most common buyer for Circle C homes may be distracted with other activities.  The good news for sellers is after the kids are settled into the school routine, relocation buyers will replace the summer time demand.

The last six months of the year, February – July 2019

Let’s take a quick look at the home sales from February through July 2019. Over the past six months (Feb-Jul) we’ve recorded 203 homes sold… a run rate of ~ 34 homes a month.  June and July were strong month for sales, recording 41 and 44 homes as sold respectively.  The most activity in July was noted in Circle C Central (one of the largest communities in Circle C) with 9 sales in July, followed by Circle C West with 8 sales in July. As of August 13th, there are 45 homes listed for sale (Active) in MLS with a median ask price of $499k. There are 56 homes with a Pending status and a median ask price of $537k.  That number is skewed a little on the upper side as there are five pending homes with an ask price over $700k, and one at a whopping $1,385,000!

Year to Date 2019

Year to date, January 2019 to August 13th, we have recorded 218 sales in MLS. The average home sold during that time was a 2003 4 bedroom, 3 ½ bath home with about 2,830 sf of living space.  Average ask price was $526k and sold for an average of $523k with only 38 days on market. The median ask price over that same timeframe was $500k and median sold price was $499,950.  Median days on market were a mere 10 days!

As for July 2018 versus July 2019: See table below to see the monthly stats year over year.

 

  July 2018 July 2019 % Change
Homes Sold 37 44 Up 19%
Median Sold Price $512,500 $497,500 Down 3%
Median Size 2,914 sf 2,963 sf Up 2%
Median $/SF $180.38 $183.32 Up 2%
Median Days 6 15 Up 150%

 

The upper and the lower limits

Okay, the median prices are holding steady and volume of sales continue to be impressive.  What about the upper and lower limits, or range of values?  Last year, the most expensive home that sold between January and August 12, 2018 was a $880k, 5-bedroom, 4-bath, 3-car garage, 4,347 SF home in Avana.  This year the most expensive home sold between January and August 12, 2019 was a $1,251,500, 5-bedroom, 5-bath, 5300 sf home in the Hillside section of Circle C.  On the lower end, last year the least expensive home that sold was a $355,000, 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 2057 sf home in Circle C Central.  This year the least expensive home that has been sold was a $350,000, 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 1,482 sf home in Park West.  So, Circle C sold prices are ranging of $350k to $1.25MM YTD…. and sold home sizes from 2057 sf to 5300 sf YTD.

The Takeaway

While volumes are still impressive, we are running slightly behind our 2018 pace (238 versus 218, or down 9%) as forecast earlier this year and median home price is slightly higher (up 2%).

For More Information

For more information about the Circle C housing market and your particular neighborhood click here to view the updated Market Stats report on MoveToCircleC.com or AustinRealEstatePartners.com.  There you’ll see a google map with specific values for each neighborhood and if you scroll down a little two tabs with more information – one for the prior six months and one for the annual growth rate.

Still have questions about the market or what your home value could be today?  Call me directly at (512) 288-8088 and I’ll do my best to provide an answer and there is no obligation.

Blog, Circle C Ranch, Market Statistics

Circle C Housing Market Update February 2019

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Circle C Housing Market Update February 14, 2019

Hey neighbors, Happy Valentine’s Day!  Hopefully you’ve picked up something special for your Valentine and can relax the rest of the day.  Me, I’m thinking about the housing market in good old Circle C.  If you have a few minutes, let’s go over the numbers for the past 6 months and January specifically.  It’s a new year and people are thinking about moving again.

The past six months and January totals

Between August 2018 and January 2019, we recorded 150 sales in Circle C.  Average size was 2806 Square Foot, average price was $512k or $182/Square Foot.  Those numbers were slightly down from last month.  Only nine homes closed in Circle C during the month of January!  That’s amazing.  We typically average about 30 home closings in a month, but January was SLOW.  Remember, January closings are the result of December contracts… so really December was a slow month.  Last year we saw 16 homes close in January 2018.    The minimum sale recorded in January 2019 was a 1,690 Square Foot home for $379,500.  The average home in January was 2,621 SQUARE FOOT and closed at $453k.  The highest recorded sale in MLS for January was a 2,750 square foot home that closed at $465k.

When I think about the market now, I notice a few very interesting things.  First, the lack of homes on the market – it’s amazing to me that a community the size of Circle C (approx. 5500 homes) that only 30 homes are currently ACTIVE and for sale.  Of those 30, nearly half (14) are new construction.  That means there are only 16 resale homes available. Wow.  Using the National Association of REALTORS© months of inventory measurement, NAR would say that Circle C currently has only 1 month of inventory!  That is what we would call a giant Seller’s market.  Now there are more new construction homes available in various stages of build, but they may not be listed in the MLS.  Still, this is a tough environment for Buyers.

See table below to see the January stats year over year.

 

  Jan 2018 Jan 2019 % Change
Homes Sold 16 9 Down 44%
Minimum price $370,100 $372,500 Up 1%
Average price $454,521 $446,389 Down 2%
Median price $439,500 $464,000 Up 6%
High price $601,490 $525,000 Down 13%

 

The Take Away

It’s only been one month for 2019, but given our lack of resale home inventory I am not going to forecast a huge 2019 in terms of home sales.  After all, some of the current inventory is not actually ready to move into (new construction) yet.  I did notice a change from our two builders in the area – Cal Atlantic / Village Builders who have homes going up in Hillside Estates, Greyrock and Avana.  Looks like they are still going strong and I expect that Greyrock will be built out in early 2020.  Avana and Hillside Estates similarly.  Homes By AVI moved their sales office away but are building a few 3 story townhomes as specs, and fielding inquiries by phone.

It’s going to be an interesting year folks.  Here’s to your Valentine’s Day – we hope you have a wonderful day and an even greater year!

For More Information

For more information about the Circle C housing market and your particular neighborhood click here to view the updated Market Stats report on MoveToCircleC.com or AustinRealEstatePartners.com.  There you’ll see a google map with specific values for each neighborhood and if you scroll down a little two tabs with more information – one for the prior six months and one for the annual growth rate.

Still have questions about the market or what your home value could be today?  Call me directly at (512) 288-8088 and I’ll do my best to provide an answer and there is no obligation.

Circle C Ranch

Circle C Housing Market Update January 2019

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Circle C Housing Market Update January 5, 2019

Hey neighbor, got a few minutes?  Let’s take a quick look at Circle C’s last six months of home sales and as an added year-end bonus: the 1-year, 5-year and 10-year average price per square foot numbers across the 18 distinct communities within Circle C.

The past six months and annual totals

First, from July through December, we recorded 178 homes sold in Circle C.  The average sold price was $516k or $183/sf.  23 of those sales were closed in December.  Median price for December was $465k. As predicted, we recorded just under 370 homes closed for Circle C for the year, 367 to be precise, with prices ranging from a low of $349,500… a high of $1,190,170… an average of $512,854… and a median sold price of $483,235.  Remember not all sales are captured in the MLS – most off market homes are new construction and never reported through the MLS.

As a point of reference, in 2017… we saw 353 homes close.  So, the number of homes that sold year over year increased by 4% (14 units).  See Table 1 below to see the high-level year over year stats.

 

  2017 2018 % Change
Homes Sold 353 367 Up 4%
Minimum price $306,500 $349,500 Up 14%
Average price $497,969 $512,854 Up 3%
Median price $474,130 $483,235 Up 2%
High price $1,450,000 $1,190,000 Down 18%

Table 1: Year over Year comparison

CAGR versus Appreciation Rate

Before we dig into the longer time range changes, it’s important to clarify the measurement to not mislead.  The following numbers are called CAGR or compound annual growth rate.  CAGR is a measurement that smooths that annual rate of change over a specific time period.  At first glance, one might say CAGR is like an annual appreciation rate… but, true appreciation rate also considers currency inflation or deflation. CAGR does not.  Nevertheless, it is a fair representation of the direction of an asset – in this case the asset is a neighborhood average or median sales price, which we project on the value of a specific property.  The bottom line is this is an academic exercise performed at a fairly high-level and may or may not hold true at the individual home level.

The 1-year, 5-year and 10-year rate of change

We’ve been tracking home values in Circle C since 2003… but, we are only going to talk about the 1, 5 and 10 year values today.  That’s comparing the average sold price per square foot (S$/SF), for 2018 versus 2017, 2014 and 2009.  It’s also important to note that the economy was significantly different in 2009 (remember the great recession?).  Due to limited space, we will talk briefly at the entire subdivision level (Circle C) but for more details, you may want to see how your particular ‘neighborhood’ faired over the same time period… you’ll see how to do that in the final paragraph.

Ready?  Good.  Year over year the average sold price per square foot in Circle C rose from 177/sf to 184/sf.  That represents a 4.3% increase in average sold price / sf.  If we look back to 2014… the average sold price / sf was $151/sf…. So, a 6.6% increase compounded per year gets us to the same $184/sf in 2018.   Now, lets reach back to 2009 when the average sold price per square foot was $115/sf.  Wow, that’s a (184-115)/115 = 60% increase in average sold price / sf in ten short years.  The CAGR (annual growth rate) required to achieve that increase is 5.54% per year.  See Table 2 below for a quick summary of CAGR and Increase (decrease) in average sold price / sf for Circle C.

Measure 1 Year 5 Year 10 Year
CAGR 4.3% 6.6% 5.4%
Increase (Decrease) Percent (184-177)/177= 4% (184-151)/151= 22% (184-115)/115= 60%

Table 2: CAGR and Increase in Average Sold Price / SF

The Take Away

Any way we look at it we see home values on the increase.  But are they rising too fast?  Maybe.  Home values have increased faster than wages and with the rising interest rates (projected to end in the 5.5% to 5.8% by the end of 2019), I would guess that while the market in Circle C (and just about everywhere in Central Texas) would still be considered a seller’s market… I don’t think we’ll see the big growth year over year that we experienced back in 2014 (that year values rose 10.1%).

For More Information

For more information about the Circle C housing market and your particular neighborhood click here to view the updated Market Stats report on MoveToCircleC.com or AustinRealEstatePartners.com.  There you’ll see a google map with specific values for each neighborhood and if you scroll down a little two tabs with more information – one for the prior six months and one for the annual growth rate.

Still have questions about the market or what your home value could be today?  Call me directly at (512) 288-8088 and I’ll do my best to provide an answer and there is no obligation.

Buyers, Circle C Ranch

Circle C Housing Market Update September 2018

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Circle C Housing Market Update September 25, 2018

Let’s take a quick look at the Circle C housing market for a few minutes. Specifically, March 2018 through August 2018. For that six-month period, we recorded 230 homes sold in Circle C. The average sold price was $514k or $184/sf. 39 of those were in August. That’s ~11% more homes than same time last year. The highest sales per month of the year was May 2018, when we recorded 53 homes sold. I expect to continue seeing sales in the 25-35 homes per month range for the next month or so before we go into the fall and winter months. By the end of the year, I would expect to see a total of 350-370 Circle C homes sold and recorded in MLS. Remember not all sales are captured in the MLS – most off market homes are new construction and never reported through the MLS.

Year to date (9/23/2018) the average home sold in Circle C this year is almost 2,800 square feet, was built in 2003 and sold for $504k. Prices and sizes do range from a low of 2,017 SF and $414k to a max of 4,363 sf and $725k. As projected in January 2018, we’ve seen slower price growth than the past few years. Year to date, prices are up approximately 4% over last year at $183/sf.
Average days on market is lower than same time last year at 36.5 days (on average) whereas in 2017, we were averaging 40 active days on the market before contract. That number can be skewed by the number of resale homes versus new construction homes as new construction homes that are listed in MLS (spec homes) may be tracked from the start of construction and are not ready for move in for 6-8 months.

We did see a ‘pop’ of resale homes hitting the market in this last week of September jumping from 50 in August to 57 on the 23rd of September. Still with for sale we have only ~ 1.6 months of inventory based on a sale rate of 39 homes per month. The short story there is we are in a robust seller’s market although Fed rate hikes and the potential of an economic slow down because of the recent global tariff’s being applied could damper the market a bit going into the winter months.

For more information about the Circle C housing market and an interactive map of the 5400 home master planned community click the one of the two links to view the updated Market Stats report on MoveToCircleC.com or AustinRealEstatePartners.com. if you still have questions about the market or what your home value could be today? Call me directly at (512) 288-8088 and I’ll do my best to provide an answer and there is no obligation.